Google has achieved a verifiable quantum advantage using an algorithm called Quantum Echoes on its Willow quantum processor.
In a specific physics simulation task, the quantum system outperformed the world’s top supercomputers by roughly 13,000×, and the results have been published in Nature.
However, this does not mean that the Bitcoin blockchain is at risk.
This breakthrough remains far from the capability required to break Bitcoin’s cryptography.
The general consensus among industry experts and government agencies is that it will take at least 5–10 years, or longer, before quantum computers pose any practical threat to modern cryptographic systems.
Meanwhile, the cryptographic community is already transitioning toward Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) standards.
What Exactly Did Google’s Experiment Achieve?
Task:
The Quantum Echoes algorithm measures and leverages OTOC/OTOC(2) (out-of-time-order correlators) to study information echoes and echo interference in quantum systems—concepts relevant to molecular interactions, NMR (nuclear magnetic resonance), and other areas of physics.
Performance:
Using a 65-qubit circuit with 23 layers of depth, the Willow processor completed the task in about 2.1 hours, compared to an estimated 3.2 years required for the best classical tensor-network simulations on the Frontier supercomputer—a speedup of approximately 13,000×.
Crucially, the experimental results can be independently verified on another quantum device, giving rise to the term verifiable quantum advantage.
Significance:
This represents a meaningful step toward using quantum computers for Hamiltonian learning and molecular modeling in drug discovery and materials science.
However, it remains far from the realm of large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computing.
What Does This Mean for Bitcoin?
1. Willow Cannot Break Bitcoin
Breaking Bitcoin’s security depends mainly on two types of cryptographic primitives:
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Elliptic curve signatures (secp256k1 / ECDSA), which could theoretically be broken by Shor’s algorithm, but only with millions of error-corrected qubits—far beyond current technology.
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Hash functions (SHA-256, RIPEMD-160), which are only modestly affected by Grover’s algorithm, providing at most a square-root speedup.
Google’s current system is orders of magnitude too small to threaten such cryptography, and the company has explicitly stated that Willow cannot break modern encryption.
2. Timeline and Preparation
Experts and media outlets generally estimate that it will take 5–10 years or more before a quantum computer poses a realistic threat to existing public-key cryptography.
This means now is the time for strategic migration, not panic.
The industry is already moving forward with post-quantum signature and key exchange schemes, such as ML-DSA and ML-KEM, which have been standardized by NIST.
Some research groups have even demonstrated quantum-safe Bitcoin prototypes.
3. Practical Steps for Bitcoin Users (Right Now)
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Avoid address reuse, to minimize public key exposure.
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Stay informed about progress in PQC wallets and related soft-fork / BIP proposals, and be ready to migrate your UTXOs to quantum-safe address formats when available.
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Long-term holders should monitor the PQC migration timelines and signature algorithm upgrade plans of major wallets and exchanges.
Superphang
https://superphang.blogspot.com
