Thursday, February 23, 2017

Not a surprise that AEM declaring a 1-for-2 bonus issue

AEM just announced its full year 2016 performance and for its stellar FY2016 performance, it declared a one-for-two bonus issue to reward its shareholders.

1.    Profits before tax, excluding impairments, allowances and reversals, surged 50.5%.
2.    Strong customer demand of its technology ensures continual growth and profitability for many years to come.
3.    Generous final dividend of 1.3 cts per share, making total dividends per share of 1.8 cts for FY2016, up 80% from that of previous FY.
4.    Management is so confident that they have declared that they can make $6.5 million operating profit before tax for 1H2017 with their strong order book as at 16 Feb 2017. What does that translate to? It means more than 100% EPS growth in FY2017. Simply Superb!

The price will go through the roof upon the opening bell of 24 Feb 2017 market trading. Is this a surprise? No, if you have done your due diligence and followed up closely.

Refer to my earlier blog to read more about my analysis and prediction:

This multi-bagger is a gem that is worth keeping for the long haul.

Superphang

Saturday, February 11, 2017

AEM --- A 2017 Multi-bagger

AEM closed on 10 Feb 2017 at $1.02. It will be a multi-bagger going forward. In fact it was already a 3-bagger in 2016. I only discovered this gem at the beginning of 2017 and my wife and I bought this stock in the range between $0.925 and $0.965.  I wish I could have discovered this gem much much earlier.

Stellar Financial Performance
The second quarter ended 30 June 2016 saw strong growth as revenue was up 51.1% to S$17 million while its profit surged 186% to S$1.34 million.

It reported even more stellar third quarter financial performance on 8 Nov 2016 as the adoption of its new flagship high-density semiconductor test handlers had taken off.
-328.6% rise in year-on-year 3Q2016 net profit after tax
-69.9% rise in year-on-year 3Q2016 revenue
-Sales order book of S$45.5 million as of 8 November 2016
-EPS rises to 5.15 cents and NAV per share rises to 59.8 cents
The uptrend suggests a further growth in FY2017.

At the close of 3Q2016, the Group's balance sheet showed total assets of SS$42.9 million. Cash and cash equivalents totalled S$8.4 million. AEM has funded its business primarily with internal resources, supplemented by modest borrowings from financial institutions and its debt gearing is less than 0.4%.

Commenting on the Group's performance, Mr Loke Wai San, Chairman of AEM said: "We are proud to be generating solid returns on the significant R&D investments we have made over the past 5 years as we bring our high-density test handlers to market. Our engineering team has done a wonderful job in commercializing one of the most advanced test handlers on the market today. We expect the demand for our test-handlers to grow substantially next year, and our leading products and capabilities should hopefully position AEM well in the years to come.”

Sharing Fruits with Shareholders
AEM paid a final dividend of 1 cent and interim dividend of 0.5 cent per ordinary share to its shareholders for FY2015 and FY2016 respectively.
Sharing his thoughts, Mr Charles Cher, CEO of AEM said: "Despite headwinds from a slow global economy, AEM continues to achieve significant growth by delivering compelling capability and value to our customers. The considerable effort the team had expended over the last few years in realigning the business and investing in our future have begun to pay off and we look forward to sustaining growth momentum in the business next year.”

Superb PE and PEG
Its trailing p/e is only at 5.3x, computed based on the closing price on 10 Feb 2017 at $1.02.
Its PEG is at 0.0163. Simply superb!

Confidence Shown Through Rampant Company Buybacks
AEM market capital excluding its treasury shares is only about $43.6 m based on the price of $1.09 apiece. AEM bought about 2.3 million shares (which is about 5.4% of the company) from the open market in 2016, highest price being concluded at $0.85. The rampant company buybacks has shown the confidence of the management in the future growth of the company.

AEM will release its FY2017 report soon and the price will surge with the expected stellar performance yet again. I predict the stock will double its price and hit $2.04 by August 2017.


Superb 800 Super

I first talked about 800 Super in my blog of 29 May 2016 when its price was at 67 cents, but I started accumulating it when the price was at 48 cents. The stock closed on 10 Feb 2017, Friday, at $1.09.


I will not sell it so soon even though my profit is more than 100% now.

The negative point of this gem is its liquidity or the lack of it --- trading volume is low or I would have bought more at its trough. But the negative point can also be its strength when the gem is uncovered as the price can go through the roof. 

800 Super just announced its HY2017 result. The company declared a special half-year dividend of 1 cent this time and this shows that the management is willing to share its spoils with shareholders and is sharing more this time.

With the current price at $1.09, the forward p/e has shot up to about 11.95x. But its solid 65.2% earnings growth gives a superb PEG at only 0.1833. From past records, my assumption that the growth is sustainable with its strong management team has not wavered a bit.

I will keep this defensive stock until at least half a year after their S$31 m biomass waste-to-energy plant at Tuas South starts its operation at end of Q2 as I envisage another round of big percentage of growth is on the cards.

Keep this gem for the long haul. It is very hard to find an equivalent in Singapore.

Superphang


Wednesday, February 8, 2017

Fierce Surges in HKEX and HK Brokerages Setting the Pace in HK Stock Market

Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd, HKEX(388), today surged 4.71% and the volume was 10x that of yesterday's. Hang Seng Index (HSI) edged up 0.66%, but the magnitude paled in comparison with HKEX.
From history, HKEX is the leading indicator of HSI if it can surge after a long consolidation. This time round, HKEX has consolidated well for more than a month before this big surge and it should signal the arrival of a strong uptrend going forward.
Emperor Capital (717), a brokerage with lots of insiders' recent purchases, that I introduced surged 5.8% today with 10x volume compared to yesterday's, signaling the start of a bull run ahead.
All HK listed brokerages will enjoy this belated bull run starting now. Have you parked your money in HK market yet?

Superphang
http://superphang.blogspot.sg

Thursday, February 2, 2017

KrisEnergy Warrants --- You cannot miss this one

The first day of trading for KrisEnergy warrants and its zero-interest-rate notes showed huge profit taking for the warrants. In the heat of profit taking, the premium for the warrant to convert to the underlying mother share was reduced to zero based on the closing prices of the warrant and the mother share.
It means people are taking profit in a jiffy on the very first day of the warrants and the notes becoming tradable. It also means some smart money is accumulating the warrants or converting their mother shares to warrants due to the low or zero premium.
The low warrant premium at 0% is a far cry from at least 15% typically for warrants with such a long tradable period before the expiry date and a sound gearing ratio (price of a mother share/price of each warrant)
Also, at the closing price of 41.2 cts for the note, its yield-to-maturity is 13.5% --- very attractive compared to the best fixed deposit rates you can get from any banks in Singapore.
Those who subscribed to the preferential offer, which shareholders of KrisEnergy are entitled to buy 93 zero-interest-rate notes at $1 apiece with sweetener of 837 free detachable warrants for every 1000 shares that they own, would make a return of 15% from their subscription based on the closing prices of their debut. Some of my friends and I applied for the excess notes too and due to the under-subscription, we were given all the excess notes that we had applied for. With the profit taking and with the premium of its warrants reduced to zero percent, It is still a resounding victory for those who subscribed to the offer considering a two-week time frame for this huge percentage of return.
To me, a warrant with a long life span of 7 years and a reasonable gearing of 2.34x (=19.2/8.2) but with a zero premium for conversion to the underlying share is simply abnormal.
If the oil prices can remain stable or creep up from here due to OPEC production cut, KrisEnergy should follow suit. And when the selling pressure of KrisEnergy warrant is gone, it should be more rationally priced at at least a 15% premium or you will see more warrant holders start to convert their warrants to the mother shares if KrisEnergy declares dividends to be paid to shareholders.
Superphang
http://superphang.blogspot.sg