Saturday, October 13, 2018

No light at the end of the trade war tunnel?


Which of the following choices is the best when you do business with your trading partner?
(1) I win big you win small.
(2) We win equally.
(3) I win you lose.
(4) I lose small you lose big.
(5) We lose equally.

The answer really depends on your attitude.

I would like to interpret the positions of the US and China in their current trade tensions as follows:

(1) is the current position China has been in with the US as her trading partner. But the US is not happy and Trump, the US President, thinks that China is in (3). Trump is now trying to upend the status quo and put the US in (2) by imposing tariff on Chinese imports worth US$200 billion. China has no choice but to retaliate so as to reach (4) ultimately if the US proceeds with raising the tariff. The trade tensions have impacted on the world economy and we are all in (5).

Am I correct in the interpretation? It is not really important to me.

I must be able to guess correctly the timing of the trough for my perfect entry point. My sizable war chest is on standby to seize the opportunity when it presents itself.  

Superphang