Will Google “Verifiable Quantum Advantage” on Willow Quantum Chip beat Bitcoin Blockchain?

Google has achieved a verifiable quantum advantage using an algorithm called Quantum Echoes on its Willow quantum processor.

In a specific physics simulation task, the quantum system outperformed the world’s top supercomputers by roughly 13,000×, and the results have been published in Nature.

However, this does not mean that the Bitcoin blockchain is at risk.
This breakthrough remains far from the capability required to break Bitcoin’s cryptography.
The general consensus among industry experts and government agencies is that it will take at least 5–10 years, or longer, before quantum computers pose any practical threat to modern cryptographic systems.
Meanwhile, the cryptographic community is already transitioning toward Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) standards.

---

What Exactly Did Google’s Experiment Achieve?

Task:
The Quantum Echoes algorithm measures and leverages OTOC/OTOC(2) (out-of-time-order correlators) to study information echoes and echo interference in quantum systems—concepts relevant to molecular interactions, NMR (nuclear magnetic resonance), and other areas of physics.

Performance:
Using a 65-qubit circuit with 23 layers of depth, the Willow processor completed the task in about 2.1 hours, compared to an estimated 3.2 years required for the best classical tensor-network simulations on the Frontier supercomputer—a speedup of approximately 13,000×.
Crucially, the experimental results can be independently verified on another quantum device, giving rise to the term verifiable quantum advantage.

Significance:
This represents a meaningful step toward using quantum computers for Hamiltonian learning and molecular modeling in drug discovery and materials science.
However, it remains far from the realm of large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computing.

---

What Does This Mean for Bitcoin?

1. Willow Cannot Break Bitcoin

Breaking Bitcoin’s security depends mainly on two types of cryptographic primitives:

• Elliptic curve signatures (secp256k1 / ECDSA), which could theoretically be broken by Shor’s algorithm, but only with millions of error-corrected qubits—far beyond current technology.

• Hash functions (SHA-256, RIPEMD-160), which are only modestly affected by Grover’s algorithm, providing at most a square-root speedup.

Google’s current system is orders of magnitude too small to threaten such cryptography, and the company has explicitly stated that Willow cannot break modern encryption.

2. Timeline and Preparation

Experts and media outlets generally estimate that it will take 5–10 years or more before a quantum computer poses a realistic threat to existing public-key cryptography.
This means now is the time for strategic migration, not panic.

The industry is already moving forward with post-quantum signature and key exchange schemes, such as ML-DSA and ML-KEM, which have been standardized by NIST.
Some research groups have even demonstrated quantum-safe Bitcoin prototypes.

3. Practical Steps for Bitcoin Users (Right Now)

• Avoid address reuse, to minimize public key exposure.

• Stay informed about progress in PQC wallets and related soft-fork / BIP proposals, and be ready to migrate your UTXOs to quantum-safe address formats when available.

• Long-term holders should monitor the PQC migration timelines and signature algorithm upgrade plans of major wallets and exchanges.

Superphang
https://superphang.blogspot.com

China’s Special Port Fee on US-linked Ships: Impact on YZJ Shipbuilding

The recent announcement by China’s Ministry of Transport to impose a special port fee on American-owned or American-linked vessels marks a significant escalation in the US-China maritime trade conflict triggered by the US Section 301 investigation against Chinese shipping and shipbuilding sectors. This policy targets ships with at least 25% American ownership or control, including those with American investors on the board, American-flagged vessels, or built in American yards.

For YZJ Shipbuilding (YZJ, BS6), this development carries both challenges and opportunities:

Positive Implications:

Shift Away from US-linked Shipping and Shipyards: China’s move to base the fee on “equity recognition” rather than just ship nationality disrupts the traditional “flag state” logic and penalizes ships with American financial ties. This pressures global shipping companies to reduce American investment exposure and avoid American-built ships, creating demand for non-US shipyards.

Increased Demand for Chinese-built Vessels: The policy includes exemptions for Chinese-built ships, making YZJ’s offerings more attractive compared to American-built vessels, which will face higher port fees and operational costs in China. This can boost orders for Chinese yards, supporting YZJ’s newbuilding sales.

Long-term Financing Shift: As American capital loses its cost advantage in shipping equity, companies may turn to Chinese and other Asian capital markets. This financial “de-Americanization” can strengthen Chinese shipbuilders like YZJ by fostering closer industry-finance ties domestically.

Challenges and Risks:

Trade Tensions Impact: The escalating US-China trade friction could slow global shipping demand and increase market uncertainties, which might affect ship orders overall.

Cost Pressures on Shipping Operators: Higher operating costs for vessels involved in US-China routes may lead to adjustments in shipping patterns and fleet deployment, potentially influencing shipbuilding demand timing or types.

Competitive Responses: International shipowners may seek alternative jurisdictions or modify ownership structures to avoid fees, potentially complicating YZJ’s sales strategies if buyers become more cautious or seek ships from other non-American sources.

Strategic Outlook:

YZJ stands to benefit from China’s policy as it elevates the strategic value of Chinese shipyards and promotes decoupling from US-controlled maritime assets. The innovation in linking port fees to equity stakes signals a shift toward financial sovereignty in shipping, which aligns with China’s broader industrial goals.

In summary, China’s special port fee policy is likely positive for YZJ Shipbuilding in the medium to long term, as it strengthens the demand for Chinese-built ships and encourages global shipping players to reduce US investment ties.

Superphang
https://superphang.blogspot.com

Gold Hits New Highs: The Forces Behind the Rally

Gold prices have surged in recent months, prompting investors to question what iss driving this momentum. Three primary factors explain this upward trend:

The Inverse Relationship with Interest Rates

Gold and US interest rates typically move in opposite directions. As the Federal Reserve continues its rate-cutting cycle, gold becomes more attractive because it does not yield interest—making the opportunity cost of holding it lower when rates decline. 

Geopolitical Uncertainty and Safe-Haven Demand

During times of conflict and instability, investors traditionally flock to gold as a protective asset. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war exemplifies this behaviour, as geopolitical tensions tend to fuel inflation concerns and drive demand for tangible stores of value. 

Concerns About US Dollar Stability

Perhaps most significantly, growing apprehension about the US dollar's long-term strength has bolstered gold's appeal. Factors include:

·                America's expanding national debt

·                The proliferation of stablecoins

·                Monetary expansion to service debt obligations

These concerns have accelerated "de-dollarization" trends, with investors seeking alternatives to USD-denominated assets. 

The Critical Question: Timing and Alternatives

While these factors support gold's current strength, prudent investors must ask: Is gold's rally sustainable? Are there superior investment opportunities?

I believe high-quality equities can potentially outperform gold over the long term. However, this approach requires thorough research, disciplined analysis, and ongoing portfolio management—commitments not all investors can make.

Superphang
https://superphang.blogspot.com