Noble winning wager: How did I do it?

Please read my earlier post on Noble written on 18 May 2017:

http://superphang.blogspot.sg/2017/05/noble-one-mans-meat-is-another-mans.html

I thought it is good that I recorded down a more detailed journey of this winning wager on Noble for future reference as I believe my readers can take reference from it when there is extreme pessimism in a particular stock in the near future again.

(1)     My definition of extreme pessimism for a technical rebound

The dates of the various events that caused extreme pessimism among Noble’s investors

One of my criteria for judging the arrival of extreme pessimism is when the price of a stock or a commodity has plunged about 75% or more and you know that it will not go into liquidation so soon yet. For Nobel, it started to plunge from $2.80 and when it reached $0.59 --- the price I went in on 15 May at the close of the market --- Noble has plunged about 78.9%, and this fulfilled my important criterion.  

Another criterion is when there is more than 3 gap-downs, at least the last gap will have to be covered pretty soon.
Yes, I still have some other trading criteria for this wager and I will treat them as my secret weapons. 

(2)     The technical rebound will bring the price back to the 25% region before it hit resistance

See the chart to understand how I set my 25% target price.

The 25% mark will be roughly at 75 cents

(3) Have to run fast if it is time to run

Chart with illustrations showing the entry point and the two exit points

The price almost hit 74 cents on 18 May, just a cent off from the target price of 75 cents. I believe if not for the Trump’s impeachment issue, the price should have gone past 75 cents easily. But when the 5-minute chart shows the bearish momentum, I made a decision to divest all my remaining position in Noble at an average price of 68.25 cents. And true enough, the next day, 19 May, the share price plunged 8.1% and closed at 62.5 cents. 

The 5-minute chart of Noble from 15 to 19 May 2017.

(4)      Conclusion: 

For short-term trading or for long-term investing, the secret is still about due diligence to increase our odds of winning.  When there is a confluence of many positive signals to support a trend and the risk/reward ratio is good, it is worth the bet.

For trading, the mindset of big fish has to revolve around accumulating the shares at low points and sell them at high points, and repeating this a few rounds till there is no more meat for them. The big fish will also look at the global situations to play their cards. For example, if Trump is in more trouble or the hike in the US interest rate is getting more imminent, they will go short on stocks more.
I do not have all the answers at all times for the best opportunity, but when the golden opportunity presents itself again and I happen to spot it, I will go in for the kill.

Superphang
http://superphang.blogspot.sg