Privatisation of C.P. Pokphand (43.HK)

I bought C.P. POKPHAND (43. HK) about 11 months ago at 65 cts apiece because of its solid financials. The Group is a leading agri-food industry player in both China and Vietnam and its businesses range from feed milling, animal farming to food production. The Chairman and Executive Director Soopakij Chearavanont is the richest manin Thailand.

C.P. POKPHAND (43. HK) announced on 4 Oct 2021, Monday, after 4 days of trading halt, that it would be privatised at about 20 percent premium over the last trading price of 96 HK cents. This is solid news to me as I bought the stock about 11 months ago at 65 cts apiece and I received 7.6 cts dividend on 6 July 2021. It closed at HK$1.11 today, up 15.63% over 96 cents. My ROI based on the closing price is about 81.7% within about 11 months. Simply solid.

Interim dividend of HK$0.025 per share was declared and xd is on 11 Oct. The trailing p/e at the current price of HK1.11 is about 4.5x and the dividend yield at this current price was 10.27% for FY2020.

I would likely wait for the price to hit about $1.14 before I sell it. If not for this privatisation, I would have owned this stock for the long haul based on the solid dividend yield, solid financials, and low price-earnings ratio.

Anyway, it is good that most other stocks on HK Exchange are not doing well and the sale proceeds from C.P. Pokphand can be re-invested with good ROI again.

Prescientsuperphang
http://superphang.blogspot.sg

Mewah -- a potential multibagger

 A confluence of positive factors for this potential multibagger:

Solid financials:
Solid growth:
EPS in US cts
2H2020 3.92
1H2020 1.85

2H2019 0.59
1H2019 0.19

*For FY 2020, the Group generated strong operating cash flows of US$161.2 million which contributed in reducing the net debt by US$133.1 million to US$206.0 million. The Group’s balance sheet remained strong with gross debt to equity ratio of 0.47 and net debt to equity ratio of 0.34.
*ROE for FY2020: 15.3%
*Operating margin in FY2020 improved by 128% over FY2019.

Rampant insider trading
The exec chairman, CEO and COO bought the shares in the period of 16 Apr to 23 Jun 2021 at an average price of $0.431667 for a total outlay of $1.016 m. I believe they would have bought more if not for the barring period due to the earnings announcement.

Good Management and Good Future Outlook
Mewah is reaping the rewards from prior investments and has been growing its capital base.
The Company noted in its results announcement, “With economies in two largest markets China and Indiacontinuing to bounce back from Covid-19 and the demand for vegetable oils expected to double in the next 30 years, the Group remains confident about the long-term outlook of the industry. The Group’s good performance amid unprecedented Covid-19 conditions is a testament to its resilient business model and strong fundamentals built over past six decades. The Group is strategically very well placed to embrace the opportunities as they arise.”

Conclusion
Mewah will release its 1H2021 earnings on 13 August. Given the rampant insider trading, solid CPO price and the momentum of its growth, I believe the earnings announced will be superb. We all know inflation will be coming and Mewah will be the beneficiary of inflation.

The current price for Mewah is $0.425. My target price is at least $1.28 within a year.

Prescientsuperphang
http://superphang.blogspot.sg

The Hour Glass -- You cannot miss it!

Refer to my previous post of 26 Jun 2021 on The Hour Glass:

http://superphang.blogspot.com/2021/06/the-hour-glass-rampant-buybacks.html

The Hour Glass kept buying back their company shares and the last that it bought back its own shares was on 4 Aug 2021: 342300 shares at an average price of $1.51 apiece with a total outlay of $518,200.70. $1.51 is so far the highest price they paid since they started the buyback spree from 16 Jun 2021.

It will likely release its 1Q earnings on 11 Aug 2021. From their rampant buybacks, it is logical to deduce that the result will be solid. It is also likely that the management would reward themselves and shareholders with a 3-for-1 or 4-for-1 bonus issue as they did many years ago.

Prescientsuperphang
http://superphang.blogspot.sg

Excelpoint: Up 29.609% in a day

Refer to my previous post of 22 May 2021 on Excelpoint:

http://superphang.blogspot.com/2021/05/excelpoint-potential-multibagger.html

When I recommended it in InvestingNote on 12 May 2021, the price was $0.69. It closed on Friday at $1.16, up 29.609% within just a day. The ROI based on my recommended price is 68.1% in less than 3 months. 

Stellar Q2 financials
EPS in US cts
2Q2021 6.32
1Q2021 3.66

This is stupendous. I only expected Excelpoint to maintain its EPS at 3.66 US cts, now the EPS is growing strongly with respect to the already super-strong growth in 1Q2021. I will need to raise my previous target price of $2.33 to $4.02.

Prospect of the company
"With the strong demand coming from the accelerated adoption of technologies for automation and intelligence in the consumer, commercial and industrial sectors, we will continue to see a rising need for semiconductor chips and solutions," said Excelpoint's chairman and chief executive Albert Phuay.

"There are also new opportunities such as sensorised intelligence for the built environment, where Excelpoint's solutions in AI and the Internet of Things play an important role.
The pandemic, alongside existing geopolitical tensions, will continue to impact the business environment. Despite these uncertainties, we believe that with a resilient foundation and team, Excelpoint is well-positioned to grow its business," said Mr Phuay.

This company has never failed to give you yet another pleasant surprise. With this prescient shot that hits the bull's eye, my paper-ROI now is more than 6 figures. I am confident that my new target price of $4.02 can be hit in about a year.

Prescientsuperphang

http://superphang.blogspot.sg

Truly International (732.HK)

Refer to my earlier post on Truly International (732.HK) of 1 Jun 2021: http://superphang.blogspot.com/2021/06/truly-intl732hk.html

Truly closed on 9 Jul 2021 at $2.37, up 6.76%!  My paper ROI within 4 months is now 72.99%.

A lot of good developments has happened to this stock:
1. Truly announced 31 May that its 100% owned subsidiary 信利半导体Pte Ltd has redeemed the loan amounting to $2.25 billion originally expiring on 30 Jun 2022 due to the company’s healthy free cash flow. This is something solid for Truly. No wonder they did not want to give dividend during the FY closing earnings announcement in March.

2. Truly announced on 2 Jul that they acquired 15.628% of its subsidiary 信利光电 with RMB 464 million. 信利光电manufactures touch panel products, compact camera module and fingerprint identification modules and the company has expressed that they are confident of the future growth of 信利光电.

3. Truly announced on 6 Jul that their unaudited revenue for 1H2021 ending 30 Jun 2021 is 6.8% more than that for 1H2020.

Truly daily chart ending 9 Jul 2021

My original target price was $2.10 which has been met. I am still holding it tight as my technical analysis shows that the next target for Truly is $2.59.

Superphang
http://superphang.blogspot.sg

The Hour Glass -- Rampant Buybacks

Solid N-shaped chart. Solid management. Steady business even during the Covid-19 pandemic. Company seldom initiates buybacks for many years and now they started it, and they did it rampantly. As I wrote, the last buyback was done on 25 Jun 2021, with a total outlay of $735,771.87 and an average price of $1.49164 apiece from the open market. 

The last that they gave a 3-for-1 bonus issue was many many years back. 

Hour Glass has actually a strong economy moat in that the supply of Swiss luxury watches is tightly controlled. Its long-standing relationships with brands such as Rolex and Patek Phillipe are giving it the edge in the markets they participate in.

Those who want to buy these branded first-hand watches in the markets they operate in have little choice but to come to its physical shops.

Its share price peaked at $0.88 in 2015 and there has not been much movement since. It has been a very disappointing investing journey for those shareholders like me who have held onto it for years even though its fundamentals have improved a lot since 2015. For their business to remain solid during the pandemic, one simple logic that I can think of is that with less travelling, consumers will use their extra savings to buy luxury watches for themselves or their loved ones. 

However, I think the Hour Glass’ management must have also felt that they have to do something to make Mr Market reflect the price fairly and they started their rampant company buybacks this year.  This is definitely a positive development for all its shareholders as share buybacks will reduce the outstanding share count and shareholders will get to enjoy a larger percentage of shareholding in the company with the reduced total outstanding shares when the treasury shares are scrapped. The effect is even larger especially if the buybacks are made at grossly depressed levels.

Even if there is no bonus issue this time, Hour Glass will be able to pay higher dividend per share going forward since the number of total outstanding shares has been reduced.

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” --- Benjamin Graham.

It is worth the wait as my weighing machine now says it should be worth $1.70 apiece within 3 months based on my N-shaped chart estimation. It will be more than a 2-bagger for those shares that I bought after the previous 3-for-1 bonus issue and more than a 6-bagger for those shares that I bought before the bonus issue.

Superphang
http://superphang.blogspot.sg

$TRULY INT'L(732.HK)

$TRULY INT'L(732.HK)

I bought this stock on 10 Mar 2021 at $1.37 apiece for its solid earnings in the first three quarters of FY2020 and before the earnings announcement for the whole FY2020 at end March. 

The revenue increased 0.7% in the first 3 quarters in 2020, and the profit was up 140% yoy. Trailing p/e was at a low 6.1x and p/b was at 0.537x then. Positive operating cash flow in 1H2020 and there was an insider purchase in early January too. I was anticipating good dividend yield and good earnings coming from the final earnings announcement. 

The company is principally engaged in the business of manufacture and sale of LCD products including touch panel products and electronic consumer products including compact camera modules, fingerprint identification modules, personal health care products and electrical devices.

It did not happen. Company did not give any dividend even though the earnings to me was solid. FY2020 earnings was down 11% year on year due to some provision and tax issues. When the company announced that its 1Q2021 earnings increased by 176% yoy, the bullishness of the share price movement and attention on this stock was back again. My target price of $2.10 given in InvestingNote was based on a forward p/e of 10x with an estimation of a growth of 20% EPS for the next 3 quarters. This 53.28% expected ROI within 3 months seems daunting but even that, the p/b will still be very low at 0.52x and hence my confidence.

As I wrote this, the price was at $1.97, up 9.44% over the previous closing price. It should meet my target faster than I first estimated.  

Superphang
http://superphang.blogspot.sg

APAC Realty --- Still lagging behind PropNex

 I bought APAC Realty on 26 Oct 2020 at 37 cts. It closed on last Friday, 28 May 2021, at 64.5 cts. My ROI on paper is about 73.6%. 

Sell or don't sell? I will keep it! Why?

My simple calculation is that it should be worth 83.7 cents based on equivalent forward p/e of PropNex derived from the latter's closing price of $1.59. The forward p/e of PropNex is about 9.913x now. 

This will mean APAC Realty will still have an upside of 29.76% to catch up with PropNex even if the price of PropNex remains stagnant at $1.59. I believe PropNex still has room to move up given the increase in property sales and rental transactions. 

Anyway, 73.6% is definitely not a bad on-paper ROI within 7 months or so. 

Superphang
http://superphang.blogspot.sg

Excelpoint: A potential multibagger

 $Excelpoint(BDF.SI)

Voila! This will be another multibagger after Sinostar Pec.

Q1 EPS = 3.66 US cents, compared with 0.19 cents the year before. This is a solid growth of 1826% yoy!

3.66 US cts = 3.66*1.3250 or 4.8495 S’pore cts.

If the price can be 12x the annualised EPS, price of Excelpoint should be 4.8495*4*12 = 232.776 S’pore cents or S$2.32776. 

Another plus point is that the company has been willing to give solid dividend to share the fruits with its shareholders. Also, the company is confident of growing the business sustainably.

Target price is $2.33 within one year.

Superphang
http://superphang.blogspot.sg

Sinostar Pec - A potential multibagger

Sinostar Pec: Solid Q1 earnings. Solid EPS growth. It will be a multibagger if the growth can be sustained. With the new plant for producing PP in operation at the right time and with PP in great demand, it seems that this solid growth is sustainable.

Only concern is that the boss Li Xiangping has to give solid dividend in second quarter to make value investors more willing to invest their money in the company for the long haul and he has to resume his buying spree like what he did in 2019.

My average price is $0.218. Target price is $1.25 within a year.

Superphang

http://superphang.blogspot.sg

Hongkong Land

 I sold all my Hongkong Land at an average price of USD5.1783, making an ROI of 32%. I bought it in early September last year at USD3.90.

I remember I had the following reasons when I bought it then:
The property in Hong Kong had suffered from triple whammies the year before:
1. Rioting in Hong Kong almost throughout the most part of the year;
2. The Coivid-19 pandemic;
3. Close to zero tourist arrival rates and thus higher jobless rates. 

And I knew that Mr Market is forward-looking. Shrewd investors would think that all the woes will be over soon. Technically, the BIG CUP & HANDLE formed should enable the price to propel past US$5.10. 

It took about 6 months for this mission. My patience paid off handsomely. 

Got to move on to other gems. Likely to be a HK stock. 

Superphang
http://superphang.blogspot.sg

CGS (6881.HK)

I have sold $SINOTRANS(598.HK) and made a ROI of about 66.8% within about 6 months. Solid! 

I have also sold $CMS(867.HK) and made a solid ROI of about 58.4% within about 3 months. Not bad!

I worked hard to find CGS, the new gem, to invest some of the above sales proceeds.

CGS (6881) is the smallest of the eight China brokerages that has A+H market cap which exceeds S$20 billion but it has the best financials.

CGS is expected to make EPS of RMB0.71 for FY2020, an increase of 37% yoy. This will give it a very attractive p/e of 5.7x at the current price of HK$4.83.

The China stock market will be getting hotter with its GDP forecast to hit 7% this year and CGS is expected to make more commissions through the hot market in FY2021.

Target price is HK$8.20 which will enable it to reach its average historical p/e.

Superphang
https://superphang.blogspot.sg

LVJI Tech (1745.HK) & FriendTimes (6820.HK)

I introduced two gems: LVJI Tech (1745.HK) and FriendTimes (6820.HK) on 26 Jan 2021. Check this out at http://superphang.blogspot.com/2021/01/two-potential-multibaggers-lvji.html

On this CNY eve of 11 Feb 2021,  LVJI Tech closed at $1.25, 47% paper gain for me from my entry price at 85 cts done on 25 Jan! FriendTimes closed at $2.91, 37.21% paper gain for me from my entry price of $2.12 executed on 20 Jan!

For my readers and followers:

去年金鼠疫情乱

年头股灾年尾狂

今年金牛将改观

股运亨通整年旺

祝愿大家牛年行大运,万事如意!

Superphang

http://superphang.blogspot.sg

CMS (867.HK)

 Refer to my earlier posts of 12 Jan 2021 and of 27 Jan 2021 on CMS (867.HK) 

http://superphang.blogspot.com/2021/01/cms867hk.html.

and 

http://superphang.blogspot.com/2021/01/cms-867hk.html 

【康哲药业拉升涨近18% 收购皮肤线公司切入医学美容行业】康哲药业( 0867.HK...)午后进一步拉升涨17.7%报13.7港元，股价创2018年7月以来新高，市值超330亿港元。公司昨日公告，旗下子公司全资收购一家皮肤线专业公司Luqa Ventures Co.,Limited，借此，公司在获得皮肤线专业产品外，成功切入医学美容行业。（格隆汇）

Huge volume today. Getting closer to my target price of $14.55. Another huge and early angbao for this CNY. 

Superphang

http://superphang.blogspot.sg

China Silver (815.HK)

I bought China Silver (815.HK) about a month ago in anticipation of the new US President Joe Biden's printing of humongous USD1.9 trillion. When that happens, shrewd investors will drive up prices of precious metals.

China Silver's p/b was around 0.3x then. I have been patiently waiting for the confirmation of the printing of the money. 

Yes, China Silver surged 62.65 percent, from 83 HK cents on last Friday closing to the closing price of HKD1.35 today, 1 Feb 2021. But this was not due to the printing of money. This was likely to be caused by the Reddit-inspired frenzy that had roiled stock markets last week and now spilling over into Silver.

Whatever the reasons may be, I sold four-fifth of my holdings and left only 20 percent, which is the house money for me. I am quietly thanking Reddit group for bringing me the early angbao for 2021. Huat ar! 

Superphang

http://superphang.blogspot.sg

CMS (867.HK)

Refer to my earlier post of 12 Jan 2021 on CMS (867.HK) http://superphang.blogspot.com/2021/01/cms867hk.html.

CMS (867.HK) weekly chart: A good surge with good volume, enroute to breaking past the resistance.

Closed on 27 Jan 2021 at $12.26 with intraday high at $12.88. Reiterating my target price: $$14.55. This should be a big angpao for this coming CNY. 

Superphang

http://superphang.blogspot.sg

Two potential multibaggers: $LVJI TECH(1745.HK) and $FRIENDTIMES(6820.HK)

$LVJI TECH(1745.HK)

Listed on HKEx on 17 Jan 2020, this gem is engaged in the business of providing online tour guide in China. 1H2020 cash flow was badly affected by the pandeminc and now it is on the recovery path. If the same ROE can be maintained going forward, this will be a 3-bagger. Rampant insider purchases from Nov 2020 till 22 Jan 2021.
I got in on 25 Jan 2021 at $0.85 per share. My target price is $2.58 within a year from now but I think it should be able to reach there faster than that. Let's see. 

$FRIENDTIMES(6820.HK)

The gem is a leading integrated and well-established mobile game developer, publisher and operator with particular success in female-oriented games. Listed on HKEx on 8 Oct 2019. Solid p/e, solid yield and still have positive operating cash flow given this pandemic period. Can be a 3-bagger with a longer-term TP at $6.80. I bought it on 20 Jan 2021 at $2.12 apiece. It closed at $2.64 on 26 Jan 2021. Solid! 

Superphang
http://superphang.blogspot.sg

CMS(867.HK)

Insider rampant purchases with the highest price done on last May at $9.4474. CAGR for the dividend for the past 4 years is 15.65%. Corresponding CAGR for earnings is 21.29%, simply solid.

1H2020 operating cash flow was better than 1H2019 amid the pandemic and earnings was up 9.4% yoy.

I bought this stock at $8.18 in Nov 2019 and has been in the money. The upward momentum seems strong in the start of 2021. My target price is $14.55.

Superphang
http://superphang.blogspot.sg

Sinopec SEG (2386.HK)

 The confluence of many positive factors for this gem, Sinopec SEG (2386.HK):

With the closing price of $3.48 on 6 Jan 2021, this gem is holding $8.90 cash per share, low p/e at 6.1x, expected high dividend yield at about 13%, a privatization target, and the recent surge in oil price.

Had big volume, 105.9 m shares, transacted, which is about 20 times the normal daily volume, on 30 Nov 2020. This was due to the last day of trading before it was taken out of MSCI index. No more threat after that.

Daily chart of 2386

Technically, it is breaking out of the shrinking triangle. Bullish!

Target price is at $4.66, an upside of about 34% within a month. Let's see. 

Superphang
http://superphang.blogspot.sg