Outlook for Singpore Property Market

To cater to strong private housing demand, the Singapore Government has decided to increase the supply of private housing on the Confirmed List further to 5,160 units, from 4,090 units in the 1H2023 GLS Programme. This brings the total Confirmed List supply to 9,250 units in 2023, the highest level since 2013. This is also nearly 50% higher than the supply in 2022, and around 2.5 times the supply in 2021. The Government has also made available sites on the Reserve List that can yield an additional 3,430 units, for developers to initiate for development if they assess that there is demand.

The increased Confirmed List supply for 2H2023 will add to the existing pipeline supply to meet the housing needs of the population. Specifically, it will bring the total pipeline supply of private housing (including ECs) to about 63,500 units, comprising 50,200 units with planning approval and 13,300 units from GLS sites and awarded en-bloc sites that have yet to be granted planning approval. Of these, about 40,400 units will be completed between 2023 and 2025, which is more than double the 20,000 units completed from 2020 to 2022. This forms part of the total supply of about 100,000 public and private housing units to be completed between 2023 and 2025, which will help to cater to housing needs in the immediate few years ahead.

Based on my estimation, Singapore's private property index has exceeded the fundamentals of the economy by at least 25% due to pent-up demand resulting from construction delays during the Covid-19 pandemic.

However, now that the pandemic is behind us and housing construction is ramping up, the pent-up demand for housing will soon be satisfied. It is important to note that what rises quickly often falls quickly as well. If this coincides with a weak economy or a recession, the Singapore property market could crash or be severely affected.

Superphang
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